Navigating Uncertainty: How Agile Managers Craft Superior Decisions with Greater Speed

Navigating Uncertainty: How Agile Managers Craft Superior Decisions with Greater Speed

Many of my middle-management and senior leadership clients crave certainty about their future work. That’s why they often create extensive backlogs and long-term roadmaps. However, even these extensive plans don’t provide the certainty they seek. One manager once told me, “I have so much uncertainty and ambiguity. It feels like I can’t make a good, final decision.”

When I asked why a final decision was necessary, he replied, “Because I need to show strength and direction. We have to know how we’ll make money next quarter and next year. We need to know now.”

As a businessperson, I also wish I could predict my revenue far in advance. However, I deliberately avoid long consulting contracts because they are inherently risky. Instead, I offer longer-term advisory services, typically ranging from a quarter to a year. Most of my business, however, focuses on coaching, workshops, or consulting. By setting short-term, achievable goals, we can always adapt and move on to the next task when the client is ready.

Does that sound like an agile team to you? I hope so. However, managers don’t create features like agile teams do; their deliverables are decisions. Thus, the timing of a manager’s decision is crucial.

Instead of seeking definitive decisions, why not make it easier to change decisions? Agile teams don’t expect to get their product perfect on the first try. They anticipate changing direction based on feedback.

When teams practice agility effectively, they can quickly adapt by keeping their Work In Progress (WIP) low, using technical excellence to avoid lingering code issues, and working as a team to learn and create collectively.

So how can managers adopt these agile team principles to make better decisions?

Here are some ideas for agile managers:

1. Keep their WIP low. Fewer decisions and interruptions allow managers to think more clearly and learn from each decision.
2. Technical excellence for managers can be broken down into:
– A clear, overarching goal for their work
– A timely, “good enough” decision for the present
– A commitment to revisit and reassess that decision

By collaborating with a management cohort, managers can learn together and create a more adaptive approach to decision-making.

Big, long-term decisions often lack certainty because they are too extensive to manage effectively. Early in my consulting career, I realized that long-term projects were rarely guaranteed. Clients frequently changed their minds, leaving our work unfinished and goals unmet. This teaches us the importance of breaking down long-term goals into smaller, manageable objectives.

Managers can avoid the pitfalls of large, inflexible plans by right-sizing their decisions. Just as teams can split large tasks into smaller increments, managers should aim to make smaller, more frequent decisions. By doing so, they can adapt more quickly to changes and reduce the risk of making obsolete plans.

Here are some steps for right-sizing management decisions:
– Think about how little a decision you can make right now.
– Collaborate with a cohort to refine these decisions.
– Limit management WIP and focus on one decision at a time.

Over my consulting career, I’ve practiced this approach to manage the uncertainties in my business effectively. With practice, this approach becomes more manageable and can alleviate the stress of uncertainty.

Uncertainty should be viewed as an opportunity rather than a threat. While planning can never eliminate uncertainty, it provides a chance for innovation and adaptation. Managers can show true leadership by setting overarching goals and planning short-term, revisitable actions at both the product and portfolio levels. This approach allows them to take advantage of opportunities faster and make more informed decisions in a dynamic environment.

This is what management agility looks like and how managers can make better and faster decisions.